Disagreement as a measure of uncertainty
WebMar 4, 2024 · After introducing a new measure of firm-specific uncertainty proxied by the degree of disagreement of machines’ future return forecasts, we show that this newly proposed, objective measure of uncertainty (or investor disagreement) does have a significant impact on the cross-sectional pricing of individual stocks. We find a … Webmeasure uncertainty as reflected in these survey responses.1 In this paper, we extend earlier work and present quarterly time series of various measures of uncertainty and disagreement that correct some apparent biases due to imperfections in the survey.
Disagreement as a measure of uncertainty
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Webeconomists have studied but disagreed on whether disagreement is a good proxy for uncertainty.1 As pointed out by Bomberger (1996) and Giordani and Söderlind (2003), disagreement remains to be theoretically an unfounded measure of uncertainty. Interestingly, there has been a parallel but largely independent research in the accounting WebSep 1, 2024 · The forecasting disagreement measure has long been used in the literature to capture increases and decreases in uncertainty since the pioneering work of Bomberger (1996). The Philadelphia Fed provides a measure of forecasters’ disagreements about US federal government consumption and investment based on its Survey of Professional …
WebApr 12, 2024 · Many uncertainty measures remain elevated relative to their pre-pandemic levels, even as the economy has recovered. ... and macro forecaster disagreement all rose sharply at the onset of the pandemic but retrenched almost completely by mid-2024. Thus, these measures exhibit a somewhat different time pattern than the one-year VIX and the … WebApr 13, 2024 · The largest disagreement seems to be whether such distributions should be net ... (Figure 1A). Of course, one could also consider frequencies as weighted by some measure of magnitude of impacts. Such distributions, whether or not they are ... there is disagreement and uncertainty about how net impacts of non-native species will change …
WebDisagreement as a Measure of Uncertainty ECONOMIC LITERATURE ABOUNDS in models that predict that the current expectation of future inflation has an influence … WebApr 10, 2024 · And yet, the excited states of the 훼 particle remain a bit of a mystery, as evidenced by a disagreement surrounding the excitation from the ground state 0 1 + to the first excited state 0 2 + . Theoretical predictions for this transition do not match measurements, but the experimental uncertainties have been too large for implications …
WebOct 19, 2024 · Disagreement about the mean forecast, however, may be a weak proxy for forecast uncertainty. We also examine the relationship of these measures with the term …
WebApr 6, 2024 · This index is a weighted average of three uncertainty components: (i) newspaper coverage of policy-related economic uncertainty, (ii) the number of federal tax code provisions set to expire in future years, and (iii) a measure of disagreement among economic forecasters as a proxy for uncertainty. to seek knowledge synonymWebThe measure defined by the square root of the last term in (3) is a measure of disagreement among individual density forecast means, whereas the variable that is relevant to the question of the usefulness or otherwise of disagreement as a proxy for an unavailable direct measure of uncertainty is the reported point forecast. to seek knowledgeWebdisagreement: 1 n a conflict of people's opinions or actions or characters Synonyms: dissension , dissonance Antonyms: accord , agreement harmony of people's opinions or … to seek recourseWebNov 12, 2024 · Uncertainty and affect are fundamental and interrelated aspects of the human condition. Uncertainty is often associated with negative affect, but in some circumstances, it is associated with positive affect. In this article, we review different explanations for the varying relationship between uncertainty and affect. We identify … to seek new opportunitiesWebJul 24, 2024 · Forecast disagreement is measured as the standard deviation across forecasters of one-year-ahead annual real GDP growth rate forecasts. US data are from … to seek past participleWebAug 2, 2024 · The researchers found that disagreement among the forecasters surged to historic levels during the pandemic, with U.S. forecaster disagreement rising eightfold … to seek medical attentionWebDisagreement as a Measure of Uncertainty A Comment on Bomluerger by Robert TM Rich and J. S. Butler This paper reexamines Bomberger's (1996) empirical support for … to seek solace